The Future of Brexit Deal after May 2017 UK Elections

Post-UK Election BREXIT DEAL Free Movement and Trade with EU

The Future of Brexit Deal after May 2017 UK Elections

Limit Immigration from EU, Border Controls, EEA, CETA

This post relates to developments on BREXIT after May 2017 UK Elections, and covers the following topics:

  1. Brexit Deal | Can’t Have Your Cake and Eat It!;
  2. PM’s Tough Stance on Fragile Grounds | Immigration and Trade with EU;
  3. Two Possible Options | EEA | CETA | Post Election Scenario | BREXIT;
  4. Divisions in HM’s Cabinet | BREXIT;
  5. Future of Financial Services | London | BREXIT.

The Future of Brexit Deal after May 2017 UK Elections

Brexit Deal: Can’t Have Your Cake and Eat It!

The possibility of Britain securing a ‘cake and eat it’ Brexit Deal i.e. Britain leaves the EU and also keeps enjoying the benefits of the Union, – looks quite slim if not altogether an unlikely event, according to the latest reports.

Instead, cabinet ministers have resigned to accepting compromises for securing better trade agreements with the EU in exchange for a level of sustained political control from Brussels.

PM’s Tough Stance on Fragile Grounds

According to experts and reliable sources, Theresa May’s tough stance on Brexit – where the PM publicly said Britain could get a significant free-trade deal with the EU whilst also being able to limit free movement of people from EU – is looking increasingly delicate.

What is now emerging as more likely is a watering down of one element or another.

Two Possible Options: EEA and CETA

According to experts, there are only two viable choices in the post-Brexit scenario for Britain:

  1. high-access, low-control arrangement which may look a bit like the EEA (European Economic Area). For instance, European Economic Area deals allow member countries such as Iceland and Norway to be members of European Union’s single market in return/exchange for accepting free movement while, for example, not signing up to common fisheries policy;
  2. A low-access, high-control arrangement which may eventually end up looking like CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) – a more classic form of a free trade agreement. CETA refers to the recently struck deal between Canada and the EU which will see many import duties on goods between the EU and Canada reduced considerably;

In the post-election scenario, business voices that were silenced due to political pressures before the elections are recovering and have started raising their voices. Accordingly, the economic arguments that got lost in the last six (6) months are now being heard again!

Divisions in the Cabinet

According to Media Reports, Cabinet splits on Brexit have been bubbling up over recent weeks with Brexit Secretary Mr David Davis and Chancellor Mr Philip Hammond reportedly clashing.

Chancellor Hammond is known to aspire to put economic stability ahead of sovereignty while hardline Brexiteers, such as Secretary Davis, believe giving any ground on border controls and immigration would signify as a betrayal of the referendum result.

Future of Financial Services

The EU is looking forward to taking much of the multi-billion pound euro clearing sector out of London and into Europe. A delegation of business leaders of the City of London is proposed to visit Brussels in the second week of July 2017 to press for a post-Brexit deal on financial services.

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